The economic impact of tuberculosis mortality in 120 countries and the cost of failing to meet the Sustainable Development Goals tuberculosis goals: a full income analysis

Research in context

Evidence prior to this study

We searched PubMed for articles published between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2020, using search terms broadly representative of the health and economic effects of tuberculosis, including the effects on and resulting mortality and morbidity economic and welfare losses. We excluded studies published in languages ​​other than English. We found that previous macroeconomic assessments of tuberculosis treatment and control had examined the impact of specific interventions such as the directly observed short-term strategy proposed in the Global Plan to Stop TB 2006-2015. Existing studies have also attempted to assess the impact of changing tuberculosis incidence on GDP growth per capita and per worker. The years of life lost due to tuberculosis and the effects of tuberculosis treatment on all-cause mortality have also been estimated, especially as part of benefit-cost calculations in the lancet Health Investment Commission. The likelihood of meeting the goals for tuberculosis mortality set out in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was assessed by the Global TB Report 2020, which concluded that the cumulative reduction in tuberculosis deaths was between Was 14% in 2015 and 2019, less than half of the 35%. Reduction needed. To the best of our knowledge, no previous estimates have been made of the impact on life expectancy or full income of the decline in tuberculosis deaths in 120 countries from 2020 to 2050. More importantly, there are no previous estimates of the economic impact of meeting the SDG tuberculosis mortality target, particularly for full incomes, which, compared to previous economic impact studies, provides a more accurate and complete picture of the value of investing in tuberculosis control conveyed.

Added value of this study

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate total income losses due to tuberculosis mortality in 120 countries in 2018 and from 2020 to 2050 to the SDG tuberculosis mortality target by 2030. The study also determines the contribution of tuberculosis in people with HIV and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis to it economic losses. Because our estimates of economic burden are complemented by estimates of impact on life expectancy, they provide a complementary view of the impact of tuberculosis mortality. Finally, the study includes estimates of additional full income losses from excessive tuberculosis deaths from COVID-19-related disorders in 120 countries that, to the best of our knowledge, have not yet been estimated.

Implications of all available evidence

This study provides an assessment of the potential impact of not meeting the SDG tuberculosis mortality target by 2030 and highlights the significant economic losses of not reducing the tuberculosis death rate by 90% by 2045 (compared to 2015) compared to when it was achieved of the goal. in 2030. The analysis also provides insight into how COVID-19-related disruptions could exacerbate these losses.

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